@msimon-2000 wrote:
Our current debt is what...20.3 trillion? If I add up your 16 trillion and 4.5 trillion amounts, then you are basically saying that the USA had no debt prior to or since 2009 other than the secret loans and QE? Sorry, but the numbers just don't add up...
The numbers are correct, msimon-2000.
The $16 trillion was in zero interest rate
loans (loans = paid back), as stated above.
However, that number is slightly deceiving. That was the "scope" of the Fed's loan program, but not the base loan amount, which was something like $1.5 trillion (too lazy to look up the exact amount, but from memory it's very close). In other words, the most the Fed lent out at any ONE time was ~$1.5 trillion. The $16 trillion figure comes from the sum total of recurring loans over many years.
E.g., Company A borrows $1 trillion and Company B borrows $.5 trillion this month. Company B repays the loan next month, so $.5 trillion is freed up. Company C borrows $.5 trillion next month. That $.5 trillion by Company C is added to the running total. But, at any single given time, the Fed never had more than $1.5 trillion or so out. Still, these were zero interest rate loans. And they were given on demand to high level financial institutions and corporations during the 08/09 crisis. Imagine if YOU had access to such "free money" essentially. Any moron can take that and run it up. The easiest way? LEND on interest (your own interest is ZERO)!
The $16 trillion in zero interest rate loans (which were paid back), however, was
different from QE. QE is essentially fancy talk for an asset swap. The Fed gives you cash (that it's printed) for whatever crappy toxic asset, Treasury, or asset-backed security you have on your books you want to get rid of. When institutions get that cash, it almost ALWAYS goes directly into the stock market for a quick and easy return vs. being used to invest in long-term projects. The Fed's balance sheet never really went down much from the $4.5 trillion it printed for QE. It started to sell off its book of assets in 2018 to try to reduce its debt, but the stock market crashed 19% and it stopped doing that. Keep in mind that the money that's printed essentially disappears when the Fed reduces its balance sheet. That has an effect on the stock market, as most of the printed money goes directly into the stock market (post-bank and primary dealer asset swaps). Then, in September of 2019, it started increasing its balance sheet again (i.e., QE), due to a lack of buyers of U.S. Treasuries and a spike in the repo market's overnight lending rate. And, finally, when COVID hit, its balance sheet just completely exploded. The Fed balance sheet currently stands at ~$7 trillion. In less than a year, it's almost doubled it's balance sheet from nearly a decade of QE (it's current run rate is $120 billion per month getting shoved into financial markets...there is no stated end in sight.......and it's approved endless QE - hence the "QE Infinity" phrase).
Hope that makes sense!
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 12/29/2020 06:13AM by shoptastic.