And, the Senate has gone home. GOP senators who are endangered are begging McConnell to compromise with the House bill passed at the end of the week.

I thought it was passed. So when do we get our second round? I want to visit my 93 year old mother that has lung cancer and is a nursing home in Rockland county New York. I can visit her if I have a negative covid test for 7 days. We have to stay 6' away from each other but I am going to go as soon as I get the money. The visit will be 30 minutes and will be chaperoned.

The House passed a $2.2 trillion Dem. bill, but it hasn't been confirmed by the Senate yet and is unlikely to be, given the GOP's $1.6 trillion maximum offer.

There could still be compromise, though. Maybe both sides meet in the middle and pass a $1.9 trillion bill. They can stage an emergency reconvening in Congress to get things passed before the elections.

For me, it's not if, but when they reach a new stimulus bill: either before the elections or next year. I just cannot see any possible way we do not push stimulus through in this economic environment. The political pressures are simply too great. We'll see what happens this week . . . maybe we get it.

[markets.businessinsider.com]#

ETA: Pelosi is telling executives not to fire people as a deal is imminent!

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/05/2020 01:36PM by shoptastic.

What should be happening with a significant number of people is this: Of all people who did not/do not have covid, many people should be smacking their heads if they did not prepare before the very thought of covid for a long stretch of trouble. The trouble could be job loss, sickness, injury, natural catastrophe, or something else that is disruptive to income and life in general. There might be oh all right, there are too many avoidable crises which at most should be challenges and chances to learn how to live on the cheap or help other people in ways known and previously unknown. Many people with/without covid should be thanking their lucky stars (or someone, or something) because they have a reason to complain. At least they are alive and have some possibility of change.

So what is left for the fed to provide to people who are living, learning, changing and adapting?

- Money to replace income from jobs that will end/have ended. Many jobs would have disappeared anyway, and workers would have had to find other work or retire. Please see the next option.
- Money for job/skills training for displaced workers whose jobs went/will go away.
- Infrastructure. There is always a need for new features and/or maintenance.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

- Infrastructure. There is always a need for new features and/or maintenance.

An infrastructure bill will likely come in 2021.

It pays for itself, as new roads and bridges will reduce traffic and improve efficiency within the economy (saving people on gas/oil, time, freight carrying costs, etc.). Repairing crumbling infrastructure also prevents further issues down the line. Clean water prevents disease that can be costly and reduce productivity. An enhanced electrical grid can prepare the way for less carbon-emitting energy use in the future.

These are jobs that would be created would largely be middle-income jobs...able to sustain a family. That helps the economy grow. Of all projects, infrastructure spending is the absolute best, imho.

It's definitely not traditional welfare.

If I recall, the present administration promised an infrastructural program at the very beginning of its term. If that had ever gone forward, right now is about the time that everything would be set for major hiring. It takes 2-4 years to ramp up major projects, folks.

Also, let us not forget that many who are short of $$$ now, used up their savings during the Great Recession. The worst off of those folks were unemployed until 18-24 months before Covid hit. Blaming them for not saving enough is a lame sort of "logic."

@Shop-et-al wrote:

What should be happening with a significant number of people is this: Of all people who did not/do not have covid, many people should be smacking their heads if they did not prepare before the very thought of covid for a long stretch of trouble.

There's definitely going to be behavioral changes post-COVID. People will save more and create that boring emergency fund. It's not sexy, but it's a must. Dave Ramsey always harps on this and has said that he's been hearing so much regret from people not following this step in his "Baby Steps" rules.

Anyone think we see a generational attitude shift towards thrift like we saw after The Great Depression?

Some speculate that it will happen. If so, it would be a short-term negative for the economy (as less spending and more savings = deflationary pressure), but longer-term, it would mean Americans would be in better shape (less chance of bankruptcy and ruined credit....which all leads to higher interest rates when borrowing, etc.).

.....Trump instructed WH officials to stop stimulus negotiations.

stock market goes negative for the day - LOL....

My Texas Roadhouse stock was up 4.6% on the day and now headed down. *sniff*

Lots of analysis out trying to figure out what's happening.

A very interesting take I saw: Trump is not playing political chess against the Dems with this move, but with the Republicans!

He wants the deal. Since the Republicans are theoretically the ones playing hardball, he has to get THEM to move, not the Dems.

How can he do that? Stop the talks, let the stock market tank, and force Republicans to react.

I dunno......but it's not outrageous. It does make some sense in a way. Feel free to post your theories.

*maybe, as Pelosi says, Trump is just all messed up from his meds - lol*

I've given up trying to understand Trump's mind:
[www.cnbc.com]

@ wrote:

President Donald Trump reversed course Tuesday night and urged Congress to approve a series of coronavirus relief measures that he would sign, including a new round of $1,200 stimulus checks for Americans.

I guess the stock market could be going up again. lol

@ wrote:

“If I am sent a Stand Alone Bill for Stimulus Checks ($1,200), they will go out to our great people IMMEDIATELY. I am ready to sign right now. Are you listening Nancy?” Trump tweeted Tuesday night.

I guess we'll have to wait on what he's going for...a series of smaller bills? A one-time big bill? . . .

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 10/07/2020 09:31AM by shoptastic.

Small businesses continue getting crushed:

Where art thou thy stimulus?

I found it interesting, incidentally, that a Planet Fitness near me was so packed that it seemed more cars were there possibly than before the pandemic.

1 in 5 Americans don't have enough cash reserves to make it until the election:
[money.yahoo.com]

There is a huge price to pay for each trade-off that will be felt for the near future and years and years to come... one way or another, this country will feel the effects of covid even after the symptoms disappear.
___

I did my own weeny math and the good news is that my savings goal is realistic and will be realized by the end of the year, as planned.

Now, I need a goal and a list of options for 2021. What do I want to do? What am I willing to do? In the worst case scenario, what will I force myself to do (short of embarrassing myself by attempting to sell myself?) At this time next year will I have reached the 2021 goal and be ready to plan 2022's goal?

.

Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 06/22/2022 12:40AM by shoptastic.

Republicanism was unrelated. These numbers more likely represent what happened worldwide and what each Republican administration inherited...

Well..... well we might get our stimulus relief soon but I made plans to visit my mom. She is 93 and in a nursing home in Rockland county. I will rent a car and bring masks and lysol wipes. The visit will be chapperoned and we both will wear a mask. My mom had covid19 but is ok now. She has lung cancer so the antibiotics they gave her helped with the cancer. I am taking my covid test Oct. 28 and will leave Nov. 3. I am very thankful for the 30 minute visits believe me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I would like something altogether different. What about tax credits for purchase, or periodic delivery of, face masks and approved cleaning supplies? If the fed wants us to use these things regularly, let them address the associated costs directly. We can figure out many other things by ourselves. We can accomplish them in the known safe ways if we have reliable supplies. I wonder how much it would cost to pare down to basics: masks and cleaning supplies for all who use them. Hmm.

@heather shops wrote:

My mom had covid19 but is ok now. She has lung cancer so the antibiotics they gave her helped with the cancer. I am taking my covid test Oct. 28 and will leave Nov. 3. I am very thankful for the 30 minute visits believe me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

WOW! That's wonderful your mom is okay. Good to still be very careful, but great to hear she recovered from COVID!

As for stimulus, it's possible we don't get anything big at all - not without a blue November sweep. THIS ---------->

@teriraia wrote:

As long as the stock market is gaining there will be no stimulus package. They worked very fast and hard when the market was in trouble but now it is just crickets.

I fear a 2008-9 repeat: Big banks got bailed out with no strings attached money, as homeowners and Main Street got nothing. Because there was no mandate to lend, bailed out banks actually profited more by: a.) holding their excess cash at the Federal Reserve for a free risk-free profit (interest); b.) letting the economy fall apart and watch asset prices and assets fall. They could later buy up those assets of foreclosed homes and cheap stocks/bonds for an even greater profit vs. lending with risk to Main Street. In other words, they stood to gain more by letting the economy fall apart than to lend and stimulate it.

Since 2008-9, we've seen America become a renter nation. Banks and private equity bought up cheap foreclosed properties in the wake of the GFC and instead of selling them (everyone was broke in America, so there weren't even that many buyers), they rented them back out to families with destroyed credit and finances. I hate to sound so gloomy and Dickensian, but this is how an oligarchical system can work at its worst.

As teriraia said, a massive stimulus bill was passed in record time when the U.S. stock market fell 35% in March. We got back up to and briefly surpassed pre-COVID market highs in some indexes and I'm not sure there is much urgency/incentive to pass more stimulus now. Insiders sold stock at record rates in August (at near-market highs). Lots of people have cashed out already. As for jobs/employment, talk of a "K-shaped" recovery with the rich returning to pre-COVID norms, as the bottom half of income earners sink is corroborated by the economic data.

So, with the wealthy having their stock market gains and employment back to pre-COVID norms, it's entirely possible some of our leaders/elites don't care what happens to everyone else at this point. Like 2008-9, the powers that be might profit more by letting the bottom fall out. Ruined personal finances, mass evictions and home foreclosures, bankrupted and closed small businesses (allowing larger companies to steal market share), high unemployment, etc. means a desperate disadvantaged labor pool that will work for pennies and have to rent (not own) property. That would be the worst-case, Dickensian scenario (and a divided Congress could mean obstruction of any big stimulus bill). . . .I hope not, but people should also prepare for a worst case scenario too.

Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 10/22/2020 06:54AM by shoptastic.

^^^Keep in mind, foreclosure moratoriums take time: one year (12-months).

March 2021 will be a big test of things.

.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 06/22/2022 12:41AM by shoptastic.

. . .Although (again, pure politics aside), there might be a chance we do get a big stimulus bill (I doubt it) if there is some horse trading going on that enriches the elite/wealthy in return. Maybe we lower the tax rates further for the super rich or something and in return we get a bigger stimulus. After all, under Obama/Biden, we unexpectedly saw them make permanent the Bush tax cuts for the rich. So, there could be "compromise" scenario like that for a bigger stimulus for everyday folk. Still, my base case going forward is that a big bill is off the table.

As of this moment, I agree with that. Mitch was re-elected. My state just elected someone who is good with money and was a state treasurer. I would guess that any future assistance will be focused, well-documented, and prized by any who receive it. Some nitwits defrauded the fed in previous periods of generosity. This nation cannot afford wrongful payments and the costs of recovering monies. It is costly enough to provide payouts that truly fit within designated parameters.

oh boy! ...Maybe a GOP Senate is not fully determined yet:
[twitter.com]

@ wrote:

I'm not sure it's really sunk in yet, even among reporters, that we're probably going to get 2 runoffs in Georgia on Jan. 5 that will determine control of the Senate.

(Nate Silver - election guru - tweet)
If so, then a big stimulus may still be possible!

A Republican-controlled Senate will be an assertive barrier between lunacy and hope for the future...

@Shop-et-al wrote:

A Republican-controlled Senate will be an assertive barrier between lunacy and hope for the future...

I promised ishop123 that I'd avoid pure political chat in the forum, so I won't comment. I've only made political references when they've been tangentially relevant to non-political topics, such as stimulus and the economy.

*resisting the temptation*

All I can say is that it might not be over for big stimulus!

The recent buzz is for a stimulus deal. The size of it matters for years to come! The bigger the stimulus now, the heavier the burden later. Many of us will be long gone when future generations of leaders and peons are grappling with the effects of current choices. All things considered, I would prefer for the people in the future generations to travel lightly instead of dragging around a ball and chain of debt from this year...



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/06/2020 06:14AM by Shop-et-al.

Well, the ball and chain is and has been kicked down the road for years now. Currently, the U.S. debt is a previously unfathomable 23.6 trillion! Moreover, the debt-to-GDP ratio is 136%. In other words, the U.S. earns less than it spends. In other words, we are living beyond our means. The piper is gonna have to be paid. The U.S. spends more than it brings in. How long can someone live like that? Anyone can live high on the hog on credit.... for a while. We have had opportunities to turn this around, but have made poor decisions. More recently, the Trump Tax Cuts and the Trade Wars were major contributors to the adverse debt/income ratio. Then Covid hit. There are basically only four ways to pay off government debt. 1) cut government spending 2) shift spending to areas that create jobs 3) drive economic growth at a faster rate 4) raise taxes. The ball-n-chain is not exclusively from this year. It's from the past several years and beyond. You don't want future generations to carry it around, then we got to do some heavy lifting now. The stimulus in a very very small way fits into category 3. That money will go directly into the economy. This is why Wall Street gets excited each time it hears news about the passing of a stimulus package. But I think the big things that need to be done, and done soon, is shift spending to areas that create jobs. This is where things like the Infrastructure Package and Green Energy investments helps. Sorry, but taxes have got to go up too. However, they should be raised on those who it least negatively effects.... those who can afford it, including major corporations. Reducing taxes for the very rich have done nothing but make the fat cats fatter. Trumps famous quote to his friends at Mar a Lago.. "You all just got a lot richer." Every time there has been a tax reduction on the wealthy throughout the history of this country the deficit increases. Production does not! Jobs do not! Anyway, I could go on and on about each one of basic four ways to pay government debt, all of which contribute to a vibrate economy (minus the deficit) and would help future generations travel lightly instead of dragging around a ball and chain.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 11/06/2020 10:31AM by 1forum1.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

The recent buzz is for a stimulus deal. The size of it matters for years to come! The bigger the stimulus now, the heavier the burden later. Many of us will be long gone when future generations of leaders and peons are grappling with the effects of current choices. All things considered, I would prefer for the people in the future generations to travel lightly instead of dragging around a ball and chain of debt from this year...

For those who want less stimulus, due to debt and deficit concerns, it's important to understand that "not enough" stimulus can also add to the debt and deficit. How so?

If we have too little economic growth, then tax receipts to the Treasury will be lessened and we'll fall behind on our debt payments. Economic deflation could lead to a vicious cycle of high unemployment, greater state and federal liabilities for out-of-work benefits, low economic growth/more deflation, and growing debts and deficits.

You ideally want to hit a "sweet spot" to achieve "economic escape velocity" from a recession/depression that also doesn't over burden the government with too much debt. Granted, the Fed can keep interest rates low to manage our debt payments to a certain degree, in addition to raising taxes on people later down the line, but the former has deleterious consequences oftentimes. Low interest rates for too long can lead to bubbles (housing and stocks, in particular) and speculation, while robbing savers from a risk-free return on money at the bank and through bonds.

Our country's problem is that it's not paid down the government debt during good times. We spend too much during both good and bad times - and it's not always going to the poor or middle-class either, as we bailed out Wall Street in 2008. I don't see a problem with a huge stimulus, but I think it has to stop and we have to cut some spending right after we get things back on track. It's the latter that usually doesn't happen, as it's politically easier to just promise people more stuff and pass the debt buck on down to the next administration and generation.