Good to know about the religious services with 500 or more attendees. How does this jibe (or not) with the proposed mandate not to sing? But fear not... even the stones will cry out, if worse comes to worst... but that is for a whole other forum...

re: reopening & returning to pre-virus behavior

This was from a piece back in mid-April (before we hit 133K COVID deaths and young people weren't as heavily represented in hospitalizations and fatalities):

@ wrote:

Younger Americans are eager to eat and drink out in public again.

They will, however, likely shy away in large numbers from festivals, sports venues and international trips for a while once conoravirus lockdowns are lifted across the U.S., perhaps preferring to shop online from home while waiting to see how vaccine trials pan out.

That said, the study found a greater willingness now among young people to consider gathering in smaller numbers closer to home once stay-at-home orders expire — and a definite reluctance to immediately resume former leisure activities that involve distance and large crowds.

TruePublic found, for example, that 55% of those polled will return to restaurants “as soon as isolation ends,” compared to 16% who wait for a few months more before eating out, 13% who will wait until a vaccine is developed and 16% who will wait until “long after a vaccine is out.” (Coronavirus vaccine development and deployment reportedly could take up to 18 months.)

Eating out was the only activity a majority of young Americans surveyed were willing to resume immediately, TruePublic found. Most said they’d wait months, or for a vaccine, before returning to movie theaters, travel, gyms, concerts, sporting events or gatherings. ..

@ wrote:

[www.cnbc.com]

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/08/2020 02:58AM by shoptastic.

This was from May:
[abcnews.go.com]

We could be in for a long recession/depression/recovery.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 07/08/2020 03:10AM by shoptastic.

From July: [www.businessinsider.com]

@ wrote:

Poll finds 60% of Americans aren't ready to start dining out again, and it shows why restaurants being allowed to reopen won't prevent mass closures. Less than half of Americans say they would eat at a restaurant within a month of the coronavirus infection rate flattening, according to a recent Harris Poll shared with Business Insider.
The poll, which surveyed over 3,000 Americans between June 26 and 29, found that only 40% of Americans would go out within a month of the infection rate flattening. Over 20% of those surveyed said it would take them longer than six months to dine out. The data indicate that restaurants and governments can't rely on partial reopenings to keep businesses afloat, and instead have to plan for a recovery hindered by hesitant consumers.

I have been physically at work 2 days a week. That will end shortly and I will resume telecommuting until September. I t has not been unpleasant. The non-existent hoards if commuters and uncrowded streets are a pleasure as well as an empty office. People are wearing face masks. I have felt the wariness of some although I could be mistaken.

[www.bloomberg.com] (July 8)

@ wrote:

More than 60% of small businesses said they needed spending to return to normal by the end of the year to stay open, according to American Express data, but the pandemic may have longterm effects on spending habits. While business owners have found creative ways to bring in money during the shutdowns, half of Americans aren’t looking forward to going back to a bar, and more than one-third aren’t excited about heading out to a sports game, movie or live event, according to a recent survey by Bloomberg and MorningConsult.

Lovin' the news of a likely lowered income cap for fed unemployment benefits. This is sensible! It targets greatest need. It will remove a crutch for some, scare the scrap out of others, and present an opportunity for at least a few folks.

I anticipate that some people will find something great in themselves that they are meeting for the first time...

@Shop-et-al wrote:

Lovin' the news of a likely lowered income cap for fed unemployment benefits.

Source?

Regardless, I think we're going to get some more relief/stimulus soon, as the end-of-July "benefits cliff" is coming up.

Without it, I've heard people say we'll see riots in the streets. I believe it! So many people are facing renter's eviction deadlines (Sept.), running short on cash for food, delinquent on auto/home/commercial real estate loans and are laid off or precariously employed. "White-collared" layoffs are increasing.

COVID cases are hitting record new daily case count levels and states are having to re-lockdown in various ways.

They are likely lowering the income cap for the next stimulus check. I doubt PUA will be extended but if it is not then the next stimulus check will need to be bigger.

I get the serious impression Republicans want to force people back to work even if it kills them.

You forgot to mention that this round is all about the refinements. The last effort was big, bulky, and almost boundless. Now, there is an opportunity to make closer matches between needs and handouts.

It might be well to increase requirements for workplaces even as it is good (for the very long range view of national economics) to refine the government's covid-19 handouts.

What about... Mandatory masks. Issue them, if necessary, and distribute consequences for failure to use as directed. Mandatory gloves if/when necessary. It is probably always necessary. Cleaning schedules and procedures as per location particulars, product instructions, and recommended timing or greater frequency than that.

I hope they can find good ways to praise compliance. Can they provide discounts to IC's, employers and/or employees for mandated work PPE? A tax break for personally purchased PPE? If they can provide indirect monetary assistance which is tied to compliance, more people might get back to work and be safe there. Just a thought.

The $40,000/$80,000 upper income ranges are related to the greatest adverse covid-19 effects. Various resources that pertain to income, family composition, and other demographics yield this information. Anyone can find them, and no one will be leery of any links that I could have posted here.

POTUS is pushing for larger stimulus checks, so the Senate can focus on pushing for other changes. I hope it all works out well for people who most need the assistance.

I would guess that there is a wide band of people who are afraid of reduced circumstances. I also think that many of them will find out just how tough and clever they are. But no one wants to hear about that!

@bgriffin wrote:

They are likely lowering the income cap for the next stimulus check. I doubt PUA will be extended but if it is not then the next stimulus check will need to be bigger.

I get the serious impression Republicans want to force people back to work even if it kills them.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/08/2020 09:23PM by Shop-et-al.

@bgriffin wrote:

They are likely lowering the income cap for the next stimulus check. I doubt PUA will be extended but if it is not then the next stimulus check will need to be bigger.

I get the serious impression Republicans want to force people back to work even if it kills them.

I think we'll see PUA extended. Too many people depend on it.

I agree many GOP state leaders seem psychotic in pushing reopening no matter the health situation, BUT I think we've reached a limit. Hospital ICU capacity is maxed or near maxed in the main hot spots and TX, FL, and AZ are in crisis. Public pressure will force clamping back down on openings in one way or another. Maybe not full lockdown, but definitely more dramatic lockdowns measures, imho.

TX: 68 deaths July 7 reported | 98 deaths July 8 reported
AZ: 117 deaths July 7 reported | awaiting today's figures
FL: 63 deaths July 7 reported | awaiting today's figures

TX and FL are rising this week, while AZ is zigging and zagging.

Next few weeks could be brutal. We've been getting back close to averaging 1,000 deaths/day across the U.S.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/08/2020 10:22PM by shoptastic.

I wonder about the new, lowered income caps. Do these figures include interest or dividends? Or, is it just referring to wages, salaries, tips, and other payments related to jobs?

Some people have no financial need for their jobs. They are just amassing money. If they followed general good guidelines, they already have an emergency fund and other savings and investments that can fund them for awhile.They will not need federal benefits until their own funds are gone or diminished to the point that they become eligible.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

I wonder about the new, lowered income caps. Do these figures include interest or dividends? Or, is it just referring to wages, salaries, tips, and other payments related to jobs?

Some people have no financial need for their jobs. They are just amassing money. If they followed general good guidelines, they already have an emergency fund and other savings and investments that can fund them for awhile.They will not need federal benefits until their own funds are gone or diminished to the point that they become eligible.

They use your tax return income info., Shop-et-al, so it would include dividends and interest, which are taxable. Although, for me, I have my investments in an IRA, so those bond yields and dividends don't count. Yay.

Some of my relatives donated their $2,400 (couples amt.) to charity. They qualified, but still felt financially secure and blessed enough to not need it and want to see others hurt by COVID benefit.

I used all my stimulus on groceries and toiletries. I have a little bit left.

I'd be happy if they increased that $1,200 to like $2,000 per person.

[www.reuters.com]

@ wrote:

Reuters) - Record-breaking coronavirus cases and deaths in several U.S. states are dimming hopes of economic recovery, with cellphone data showing shoppers are staying away from stores in areas where cases are rising the most.

In Arizona, Texas, Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, which were among the first states to reopen commerce in May, retail foot traffic now lags levels elsewhere, data firm Unacast said.

More than 60,000 new COVID-19 infections were reported on Wednesday, the greatest single-day tally of cases by any country since the virus emerged late last year in China. U.S. deaths rose by more than 900 for the second straight day.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/09/2020 09:54PM by shoptastic.

@ wrote:

Stephanie Porta, 41, a lifelong resident of Orlando, Florida, said only about half the people at her grocery store wore masks but that was an improvement from two weeks ago.

“They’re trying to make everything seem normal, when it’s not. People are dying, people are getting sick. It’s insane,” she said. “A lot of people are taking notice. But so many are being fed the message that everything is normal. If they’re smart, they’re scared.”

One word: Costco

Masks required! Although, after going today, I continue to see a shopper or two with their's pulled down after entering. One woman (not the same one I reported on last time) had her's down and was talking to someone on her cell. Like last time, she walked near me and I immediately scooted my cart away and turned my head. I wish people would ask their loved one's or whoever they're shopping for what they want BEFORE entering the store so they don't have to do this. Even if it's a decide-on-the-spot thing, I wish they'd not take down their masks to talk.

TX and AZ - two mega COVID hotspots are also getting triple-digit heat:

@ wrote:

However, the combination of extreme heat and a fast-spreading virus in the Sun Belt is now creating a new set of problems that could undermine efforts to control Covid-19. From hampering surge capacity plans for hospitals to increasing people’s likelihood of getting exposed to the virus while sheltering indoors from the heat, heat can make things harder. And temperatures are poised to rise even higher in the southwest in the future due to factors like the urban heat island effect and climate change.

[www.vox.com]

@ wrote:

When temperatures get searingly hot, people spend more time in enclosed spaces, which presents the greatest opportunity for infection if the virus is present. “I’m actually really worried about indoor transmission,” said Davidson Hamer, a professor of global health and medicine at Boston University. “It’s so hot in the Southwest US that people are not outside. They’re being driven inside, so then you have all the issues of aerosol transmission and recycled air, a lot of which honestly we don’t fully understand yet.”

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/10/2020 05:34PM by shoptastic.

Drove around some major shopping areas tonight (praying I didn't get into an accident or run over a nail) out of curiosity. Here's what I saw around 8PM:

Friday night traffic at 30% of normal.

Starbucks - empty
Ross Stores - shut
Kohl's - either shut or no customers (couldn't tell)
Buffalo Wild Wings - maybe a few cars in front. Saw a family walk out.
Taco Bell - 6-7 cars in drive-thru
Wendy's - 1 car in drive-thru
Chick-Fil-A - 8-10 cars in drive-thru
Chipotle - empty
Texas Roadhouse - 40% cars in parking lot
Unnamed Mexican Restaurant - about 70% full parking lot cars
Walmart - about 70% full lot
Target - about 70% full parking lot

One popular shopping strip mall had maybe 5-10% of the customers normally there. Driving around made me think a natural disaster had struck my city. Yes, we are not fully opened yet, but it still felt weird. I felt horrible for an outdoor carnival/fair type of place I drove past. Just a handful of guests were there. Just very sad.

Edited 5 time(s). Last edit at 07/11/2020 01:39AM by shoptastic.

Sunday

2PM Sonic - every drive-in stall looked filled. WOW! Didn't realize people loved Sonic that much.
Chipotle had a decent amt. of people for post-lunch
Walmart - 85 parking full relative to normal
***Impressed with these three.

Target - 65-70% parking full relative to normal
Texas Roadhouse - 25% full parking at 1:30 PM. ...looked dead...

Ross - 80% parking full relative to normal

City's traffic about still about 30% of it's normal for a Sunday afternoon.

[www.businessinsider.com]

@ wrote:

Permanent closures account for 55% of all businesses that've closed since March 1, Yelp reported Wednesday, citing data through July 10. That's a jump from June, when Yelp found that 41% of business closures since March were permanent.

55% of business closings are now permanent.

@ wrote:

Permanent closures are the highest in the restaurant industry, which was one of the first and hardest hit by sweeping shutdowns that began in March to curb the spread of COVID-19. Of all the restaurants closed in July, 60% have been permanent closures, according to Yelp data, a 23% increase from June 15.

Restaurants dying!

@shoptastic wrote:

[www.businessinsider.com]

@ wrote:

Permanent closures account for 55% of all businesses that've closed since March 1, Yelp reported Wednesday, citing data through July 10. That's a jump from June, when Yelp found that 41% of business closures since March were permanent.

55% of business closings are now permanent.

@ wrote:

Permanent closures are the highest in the restaurant industry, which was one of the first and hardest hit by sweeping shutdowns that began in March to curb the spread of COVID-19. Of all the restaurants closed in July, 60% have been permanent closures, according to Yelp data, a 23% increase from June 15.

Restaurants dying!

"B-b-b-b-but social responsibility and they should have had better business plans with massive overheads!!"

I feel for all the business getting hit these past couple of months. It's painful to see so many business I grew up with shut down with the blink of an eye from all this.

@Tarantado: I thought I would cry when an entire mall was transformed from classy and pleasant to store-less and incomprehensible.That happened decades ago in a city far, far away. It prepared me slightly for retail upheaval in general but not for the jolting covid-meets-already-struggling-retail phenom of today.

So, this has been an interesting experiment. I've been driving by two Texas Roadhouses: one in an upper-middle-class city and one in a more working class one.

The one in the wealthier area has been missing about 35% of the customers that would normally show up. The one in the more working-class city has been quite packed. I wouldn't say it's back to 100%, but seems very close. Maybe 90-95% back to normal. The same seems to be true of retail and dining outlets in the two cities.

This small anecdotal experience has affirmed my thesis in other threads and what the economic data itself shows: wealthier people are spending less and lower income workers are spending more.

My one out of two days at work today. I went shopping during lunch. I was the only customer in the store for 45 minutes. Bought myself a dress, shoes and a bag. It was too much fun for me. The two sales ladies wore masks, were friendly, funny and helpful. This made my day.

@ wrote:

-32% of people feel unsafe or very unsafe visiting shopping malls, a survey by the firm First Insight found.
-80% of women are uncomfortable trying on makeup and other beauty products in stores, 68% feel unsafe trying on clothes in dressing rooms and 61% feel unsafe trying on shoes.
-Eighty-four percent of people told First Insight that a face mask policy makes them feel safe in stores, while 71% said they find temperature checks important.
-Forty percent said in the poll that they would wait at least a year to travel on a domestic flight, up 30% from April. And 51% said they are waiting at least 12 months to travel overseas. Fifty-five percent of people said they are waiting more than a year to go on a cruise ship again.

[www.cnbc.com]
Every time I've driven past ULTA, they'd been dead. No cars in the lots in front and no customers I could see inside. Although, they do have curbside and I think I saw some cars doing that.

Sephora is probably even worse, as it's usually inside a mall and cramped in spacing.

Carnival Cruises has had to sell some cruise ships recently. Even if a person is not scared of COVID, the thought of getting quarantined on a cruise ship if an outbreak were to occur may be a deterrent. Cruises were getting rejected from ports earlier this year as countries did not want them with COVID positive people onboard.

Carnival mostly sold ships they were planning on selling over the next few years anyway.

@bgriffin wrote:

Carnival mostly sold ships they were planning on selling over the next few years anyway.

Did they say that in a filing?

I thought it was because revenue has been down 70% and they took on $10 billion in new debt with much of it at 10%+ interest with some ships used as collateral and others sold to help stay solvent.

eta:
Okay - I did find this in a June filingt:
[www.carnivalcorp.com]
The company expects to resume guest operations, after collaboration with both government and health authorities, in a phased manner, with specific ships and brands returning to service over time to provide its guests with enjoyable vacation experiences. The company anticipates that initial sailings will be from a select number of easily accessible homeports. The company expects future capacity to be moderated by the phased re-entry of its ships, the removal of capacity from its fleet and delays in new ship deliveries.

In connection with its capacity optimization strategy, the company intends to accelerate the removal of ships in fiscal 2020 which were previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years. The company already has preliminary agreements for the disposal of 6 ships which are expected to leave the fleet in the next 90 days and is currently working toward additional agreements.
That was in June. Currently, it's up to 13 ships they are selling.

My reading of the language and context is that they don't expect capacity utilization to be very high for some time (consumer surveys and cruise bookings support that) and with fixed costs on ships with few guests, that could be more of a liability than an asset at this time. Selling some ships (possibly even creditor mandated/suggested?) helps with their finances. Not sure as to what they meant when saying "previously expected to be sold over the ensuing years." As in, were the ships older in nature and they wanted to bring in newer ones...etc.? Was this decision made years ago or after the pandemic? ..etc.

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 07/29/2020 07:18PM by shoptastic.

[www.youtube.com]

If protests like this keep happening, we'll have to shut down again not just from COVID, but property damage and business harassment.

*feels bad for the owner of these Rochester restaurants and their guests*

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/06/2020 04:36AM by shoptastic.

We were doing well. Now, parties are blamed for community spread. *sigh*

There's that too. A bunch of college students have been partying against rules. Some in Illinois were dismissed from school.

Heck, even a law school had parties against rules in Oklahoma! Makes me wonder about our future lawyers. . . .

This is one reason we are NOT going out to eat and do regular stuff. When we see stories of these parties and protests shutting down restaurants, etc., it's like NOPE - not going to risk that! These protesters are getting aggressive and in people's faces without masks sometimes.

If businesses suffer AFTER reopening, they'll go out of business completely.

2 of 3 New York restaurants could close by January 2021: [www.cnn.com]

These NY restaurant protests are NOT HELPING!

@ wrote:

Restaurants across the Empire State have been struggling to stay in business since the coronavirus pandemic forced them to shut down in March. On Thursday, the New York State Restaurant Association released the findings from its latest survey of more than 1,000 restaurateurs across the state.

Nearly 64% of restaurant owners said they are likely or somewhat likely to close by the end of this year unless they receive financial relief. And about 55% of those who are likely to close said they expect to shut down before November.

Only about 36% said they expect to still be in business by January.

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/06/2020 07:45PM by shoptastic.

[nypost.com]

@ wrote:

Professor collapses and dies in front of virtual class amid COVID-19 symptoms

Some major, top-ranked universities have reversed course on in-person classes already: UNC-Chapel Hill and Notre Dame are the big ones.

I wonder what happens if Nobel Laureate professors or top-notch university faculty (who may be older) die of COVID? How long before colleges stop in-person learning?