@Tarantado wrote:
Eh. Still not budging on buying gold over just contusion investing in index funds. My ETF’s are basically back up to pre-COVID numbers and never sold a cent of my shares and only dollar cost averaged throughout this entire time.
I think the case for commodities - including gold and silver - outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade or so is very strong. In terms of wealth preservation and growth, I would definitely recommend people hold some gold/silver and/or other commodities.
Stocks will protect against inflation and preserve wealth to a degree, but a lot depends on what valuation levels you hold and buy them at.*** Commodities, which are hard assets that will reprice to currency devaluations, are better at preserving (and even growing) wealth in high stock valuation and inflationary scenarios. Cash would generally be the worst asset to hold in those situations. If you look at Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathway 13F filings and quarterly statements recently, he's bought two major hard assets: Dominion Energy (gas pipeline) and Barrick Gold (miner).
If the dollar devalues and we get moderate to major inflation (which most signs point to), then U.S. stocks should go up nominally (while maybe staying relatively flat in real/effective value) and preserve wealth to a degree (again, also greatly depending on what levels you bought them), but commodities would go up higher and faster in their repricing ratios. That's basically what's happened this year ALREADY. Gold and silver have outperformed U.S. stocks in aggregate. Whenever stocks have gone up, you'll see gold, silver and other commodities rise even more shortly afterwards or concurrently.
***The problem with owning/buying U.S. stocks at the moment is their bubble valuation territory. We were at pre-1929 Great Depression and 2000-2001 dot com bubble levels right before COVID (in February) and remain there even now. Historically, that bodes ill for stock gains going forward (in real terms - even if they do well nominally, which may happen going forward, due to all the money printing) as it took two decades for stocks to recover after the Great Depression and 10 years (7 years before a brief recovery and then the 2007-8 financial crisis happened) essentially for stocks to recover nominally post-2000 dot com bubble crash. In inflation-adjusted terms, it took 15 years for stocks to recover from the 2000-2001 bubble.
I would rather hold foreign stocks of good companies or countries of low-debt, high growth, and good demographics (e.g., lots of young working age people, such as India) countries with low valuations right now than U.S. stocks. Although, I'd never be entirely in one region only, as that can be diversification suicide. From late-2019 through early 2020, emerging markets had outperformed U.S. stocks and I think they likely will going forward.
In economics and life, there is the saying:
"There is no free lunch." That applies to general investing and personal finances in many ways.
![smiling smiley smiling smiley](http://www.mysteryshopforum.com/smiley/smilie1.gif)
If you overpay for something, you cannot expect a good long-term return. AT SOME POINT, things balance out and you have mean reversions.
Edited 4 time(s). Last edit at 08/24/2020 12:03AM by shoptastic.