Each day becomes more and more saddening.... Gold’s Gym is shutting down all locations in my state permanently, a handful of local staple restaurants to the community are shutting their doors, more and more layoffs are piling up, and if the country follows through with NO large gatherings for the next year, the more the economy will continue to bleed and drive itself into the ground.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/2020 01:15AM by Tarantado.

T, it's going to be a different society and a different world. We will adapt.

And a month or so before this, we were just living our lives. I can't believe how much has changed in such little time.

I am predicitng, or possibly suggesting, that weddings will become digital events only. Here it goes... tech can now verify the site of each participating party. Bride & groom in one location, official in another. and witnesses in their isolation. Instead of pen and paper signatures, there will be digital signatures on printable forms. Instead of bride's rooms at chapels, there will be six or more feet of space between Elvises who are in line for their scheduled events...

Hold the tomatoes, please.

A new sub-industry could arise for people who must verify each digital document... and, if paper files are still required, some will wear protective gear while handling each of those...

@Tarantado wrote:

Each day becomes more and more saddening.... Gold’s Gym is shutting down all locations permanently, a handful of local staple restaurants to the community are shutting their doors, more and more layoffs are piling up, and if the country follows through with NO large gatherings for the next year, the more the economy will continue to bleed and drive itself into the ground.

34,000 deaths

Took us close to a full decade to lose that many during the Vietnam War. We've lost that in one month!



I do worry about second, third, etc. waves. Hopefully, the virus doesn't mutate into a much more virulent form by next Fall/Winter.

@Tarantado wrote:

Each day becomes more and more saddening.... Gold’s Gym is shutting down all locations permanently, a handful of local staple restaurants to the community are shutting their doors, more and more layoffs are piling up, and if the country follows through with NO large gatherings for the next year, the more the economy will continue to bleed and drive itself into the ground.

Where did you hear that about Gold’s? This recent article says they are only permanently closing 30 locations (they operate 700).

[www.businessinsider.com]

Close to 50% of the nation's Chinese restaurants are closed. Not surprising.

I'd think it'd be higher...but we'll see. Restaurants typically have a few days worth of cash flow. Good ones might have one month. A publicly traded one that is also very successful like Texas Roadhouse will be okay for a year or so. But, those are very rare.

All of the Gold's in my area are closing. They had recently done quite a bit of expansion, and I wondered if that had something to do with it.

@Tarantado wrote:

Each day becomes more and more saddening.... Gold’s Gym is shutting down all locations permanently, a handful of local staple restaurants to the community are shutting their doors, more and more layoffs are piling up, and if the country follows through with NO large gatherings for the next year, the more the economy will continue to bleed and drive itself into the ground.

@kenasch wrote:

Where did you hear that about Gold’s? This recent article says they are only permanently closing 30 locations (they operate 700).

[www.businessinsider.com]

all locations in my state*

@KathyG wrote:

All of the Gold's in my area are closing. They had recently done quite a bit of expansion, and I wondered if that had something to do with it.

Well, I'm sure cash flow has a major thing to do with. A lack of cash flow via gym memberships, then you can't get rent paid, franchise fees paid, your staff paid, etc. If banks require 50% or even some more ridiculous such as 100% Cash Reserves on-hand to start a business via a business loan, it would make the barrier of entry to even start a business next to impossible, if it requires any sort of capital. Before the crisis, banks typically requires at least 10-20% cash reserves on-hand relative to your loan amount, depending on the business plan and type of business.

@Tarantado wrote:

@KathyG wrote:

All of the Gold's in my area are closing. They had recently done quite a bit of expansion, and I wondered if that had something to do with it.

Well, I'm sure cash flow has a major thing to do with. A lack of cash flow via gym memberships, then you can't get rent paid, franchise fees paid, your staff paid, etc. If banks require 50% or even some more ridiculous such as 100% Cash Reserves on-hand to start a business via a business loan, it would make the barrier of entry to even start a business next to impossible, if it requires any sort of capital. Before the crisis, banks typically requires at least 10-20% cash reserves on-hand relative to your loan amount, depending on the business plan and type of business.

Not sure if Gold's is a "small business," but the bailout/stimulus plan did have a certain amount set aside for loans to small businesses. The PPP (Paycheck Protection Program), however, is entirely out of money now.

Dave Ramsey has been hotly debating this the past two days or so on his show. ...You know him: no debt at all costs. He doesn't trust the PPP loans' forgiveness provisions (thinks they government can change them). One clip I just watched on YouTube had him telling a woman he'd rather layoff his staff, reduce their compensation, etc. before EVER taking out a loan.

Even businesses that do take the loan may not survive (at least without major cost cuts) after lockdowns are removed. I just don't see consumer traffic being anything close to what it was pre-virus.

@shoptastic wrote:

Not sure if Gold's is a "small business," but the bailout/stimulus plan did have a certain amount set aside for loans to small businesses. The PPP (Paycheck Protection Program), however, is entirely out of money now.

Dave Ramsey has been hotly debating this the past two days or so on his show. ...You know him: no debt at all costs. He doesn't trust the PPP loans' forgiveness provisions (thinks they government can change them). One clip I just watched on YouTube had him telling a woman he'd rather layoff his staff, reduce their compensation, etc. before EVER taking out a loan.

Even businesses that do take the loan may not survive (at least without major cost cuts) after lockdowns are removed. I just don't see consumer traffic being anything close to what it was pre-virus.

Even if the locations affects corporate-owned locations, it's still a massive effect. Besides, "Gold's Gym" franchisees can very well be considered "small business" owners. That's like saying the Chick-Fil-A owners are their own "small businesses."

As much as I can't Dave Ramsey, I agree with him about his concern on the PPP loan.... Not so much because "the government can change their minds," from his subjective view, but more-so on an objective view, that the details and breakdown of the PPP loan defined by SBA is so loose and conflicting, that many of the parts within it don't make sense. As a result, if the terms aren't clear, as the outsourced banks likely see the same issues, there could be trouble down the road, unless SBA decides to just turn their head the other way and just forgive loans despite the conflicts.

Yup. I am trying to picture the moment when people emerge from enforced hibernation and... then what? They rub their sleepy little eyes, do a little stretchy dance, and wonder out loud: "What is the most important thing to do today?"

What will be a priority then? The then-important social distancing purposes (get me outta here! I need new faces!) might put gym membership at the top of many priority lists.

@shoptastic wrote:

.... Even businesses that do take the loan may not survive (at least without major cost cuts) after lockdowns are removed. I just don't see consumer traffic being anything close to what it was pre-virus.

@Tarantado wrote:

Even if the locations affects corporate-owned locations, it's still a massive effect. Besides, "Gold's Gym" franchisees can very well be considered "small business" owners. That's like saying the Chick-Fil-A owners are their own "small businesses."

Yeah, individual units are essentially small businesses. Although, there is also the argument that some major public franchises are also small cap publicly traded companies. And they have access to the capital markets, major bank revolving credit facilities, and private funding not available to "truly" small businesses. I know Planet Fitness is publicly traded, but wasn't familiar with Gold's and too lazy to look up

@ wrote:

As much as I can't Dave Ramsey, I agree with him about his concern on the PPP loan.... Not so much because "the government can change their minds," from his subjective view, but more-so on an objective view, that the details and breakdown of the PPP loan defined by SBA is so loose and conflicting, that many of the parts within it don't make sense. As a result, if the terms aren't clear, as the outsourced banks likely see the same issues, there could be trouble down the road, unless SBA decides to just turn their head the other way and just forgive loans despite the conflicts.

Hmmmm. I think Ramsey essentially said the same thing in another segment - that no one understands the terms. I heard it was 800 pages and probably NO ONE has read it.

I mentioned the "change of terms" part, b/c that was the last clip I viewed. I think without a pure grant, taking on a loan in a very uncertain environment (again, I have huge doubts about whether business will return to anything like pre-virus "normal" after lockdown) could end up being "punishment/pain" for the borrower.

Small businesses need grants, not loans to get through this period ideally. Even then, they might just be keeping the lights on, as traffic could be down...30%...50%...even 80% post-lockdowns. I hope for the best, but tend to believe there will be massive bankruptcies and closings of businesses of all sizes coming out of this.

@Shop-et-al wrote:

Yup. I am trying to picture the moment when people emerge from enforced hibernation and... then what? They rub their sleepy little eyes, do a little stretchy dance, and wonder out loud: "What is the most important thing to do today?"

What will be a priority then? The then-important social distancing purposes (get me outta here! I need new faces!) might put gym membership at the top of many priority lists.

re: social distancing measures

Saw this on CNBC. Harvard researchers say we may need them through 2022.
[www.cnbc.com]

@ wrote:

In a study published in the journal Science on Tuesday, a team of epidemiologists at Harvard assessed what is known about Covid-19 and other coronaviruses to anticipate possible scenarios for the current global health crisis.

It said social-distancing measures, such as school closures, bans on public gatherings and stay-at-home orders, may have to remain in place for at least the next couple of years.

If so, some businesses, I fear, just won't survive.

Gyms could be one category.

The Spanish flu had three waves. ...Let's hope we don't have three COVID-19 waves and a super virulent second wave analog!

Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/2020 03:21AM by shoptastic.

@Tarantado wrote:

Besides, "Gold's Gym" franchisees can very well be considered "small business" owners. That's like saying the Chick-Fil-A owners are their own "small businesses."

Actually the classification of small business in the US is anything with less than 500 employees. So yes, every gym and every CFA would qualify as a small business.

@shoptastic wrote:

The Spanish flu had three waves. ...Let's hope we don't have three COVID-19 waves and a super virulent second wave analog!

One possible silver lining to give us all a glimmer of hope is that the Spanish Flu gave way to the roaring twenties...a decade of prosperity in America! Perhaps history will repeat itself post this pandemic?!

@msimon-2000 wrote:

@shoptastic wrote:

The Spanish flu had three waves. ...Let's hope we don't have three COVID-19 waves and a super virulent second wave analog!

One possible silver lining to give us all a glimmer of hope is that the Spanish Flu gave way to the roaring twenties...a decade of prosperity in America! Perhaps history will repeat itself post this pandemic?!

Also, vaccines were largely unheard of in 1918. Modern medicine has advanced significantly over the last 100 years. I believe the FDA will fast-track the vaccine process from the usual 12-18 months down to 8-12 months-ish. On top of that, several treatment protocols and drugs should be vetted by the next wave. Blood plasma treatments are being widely touted as options as well. Hopefully the viral and anti-body testing will be ironed out by the 2nd wave (if it comes). There is much to be hopeful about for the future.

@msimon-2000 wrote:

@msimon-2000 wrote:

@shoptastic wrote:

The Spanish flu had three waves. ...Let's hope we don't have three COVID-19 waves and a super virulent second wave analog!

One possible silver lining to give us all a glimmer of hope is that the Spanish Flu gave way to the roaring twenties...a decade of prosperity in America! Perhaps history will repeat itself post this pandemic?!

Also, vaccines were largely unheard of in 1918. Modern medicine has advanced significantly over the last 100 years. I believe the FDA will fast-track the vaccine process from the usual 12-18 months down to 8-12 months-ish. On top of that, several treatment protocols and drugs should be vetted by the next wave. Blood plasma treatments are being widely touted as options as well. Hopefully the viral and anti-body testing will be ironed out by the 2nd wave (if it comes). There is much to be hopeful about for the future.

My neighbor, who has a heart condition like my father, said he thought we'd have a vaccine by June (of this year!). I was shocked. I was busy and couldn't talk long, but will have to talk to him soon (encouraging him to not go out for a long time, b/c his expectation is way off). He's taking steps to keep safe right now, though.

The 12-18 months, msimon-2000, would actually be the fast-tracked process for a vaccine already. And that was a very highly optimistic scenario.

A typical vaccine takes 10 years to get through all the stages of safety and efficacy testing for FDA approval. In a pandemic, you're right in that they do fast-track the process (with it being understood there can be side effects and other unknowns to a promising candidate that we'll just have to live with) and bypass some of the stages of approval. But even with the fast-track process, it should still take 12-18 months, given the various stages of testing that are still needed and how long they take. The good news is that the whole world is heavily invested in this with 70 vaccine candidates. Most will fail, but perhaps one or two make it through the fast-tracked approval process and we can get something within that 12-18 month range.

We do have much better technology today and even A.I. is helping greatly to speed up the process in research. That might help with finding a truly good candidate early on. But the testing times are still the same. They STILL have to go through those various phase trials. That's what takes "so long."

The convalescent plasma treatments (taking blood plasma from survivors and using them for transfusions in COVID-19 sick patients) does look promising from all the cases I've read about. It's been used in previous flu epidemics. I'm not so sure about the other therapeutics I've seen, though. More mixed results and/or too early to tell. If the convalescent plasma treatments can hold us over (greatly reducing fatalities) until we get a real vaccine, that would be a tremendous saving grace.

I personally have just been telling people to expect this thing to take much longer to get through on both the medical and economic fronts. I don't personally plan on the economy recovering, nor a potential approved vaccine until 2021 as a best case scenario.

@bgriffin wrote:

Actually the classification of small business in the US is anything with less than 500 employees. So yes, every gym and every CFA would qualify as a small business.

So this is somewhat on-topic. The loose regulations SBA set forth for the SBA loan opened the floodgates, as exposed this morning....

Chase Bank's CONFIRMED to process these clients: Potbelly and Ruth's Chris's..... Basically, the loophole they did to max out plus more beyond the $10M in loans is that they classified EACH and every individual location as a "small business" to suck up $30M. As you may be aware, the PPP loan serves "small business" of up to $10M. Potbelly took $10M out, while get this.... Ruth's Chris's took out $20M to cover their asses. All of this was processed by Chase Bank......

Not even sure if I should be irritated by the abuse of the SBA's loose guidelines, these businesses doing whatever they can to save their businesses regardless of how big they are, or the bank that allowed this to go through....

[nypost.com]

The air pollution in my region is the lowest it's been since 2005.

@JASFLALMT wrote:

The air pollution in my region is the lowest it's been since 2005.

silver lining?

Of course you--and everyone else--should be irritated by the ABUSE of the SBA guidelines. I am not well-educated, and I am certainly not an economist, but I understand the concepts of fraud and corruption when I see them. You have to wonder if the guidelines were purposely written with so many loopholes that one could drive a Mack truck through them. It is a free-for-all money grab for businesses, and you and I--the taxpayers at the bottom rung of the ladder--will be "allowed" to scrape up the crumbs.

I think our lockdown is going to last much longer than anyone anticipates, so the air is probably going to get much better over the coming months. On the other hand, single use plastic is on the rise and our district has stopped the recycling program for the safety and health of their employees who do the sorting. I get it, but that means the landfills are going to get...filled. Not good.

@roflwofl wrote:

@JASFLALMT wrote:

The air pollution in my region is the lowest it's been since 2005.

silver lining?

Trash compactors. They still make them!

@JASFLALMT wrote:

I think our lockdown is going to last much longer than anyone anticipates, so the air is probably going to get much better over the coming months. On the other hand, single use plastic is on the rise and our district has stopped the recycling program for the safety and health of their employees who do the sorting. I get it, but that means the landfills are going to get...filled. Not good.

@roflwofl wrote:

@JASFLALMT wrote:

The air pollution in my region is the lowest it's been since 2005.

silver lining?

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/2020 05:28PM by Shop-et-al.

@Opanel wrote:

Of course you--and everyone else--should be irritated by the ABUSE of the SBA guidelines. I am not well-educated, and I am certainly not an economist, but I understand the concepts of fraud and corruption when I see them. You have to wonder if the guidelines were purposely written with so many loopholes that one could drive a Mack truck through them. It is a free-for-all money grab for businesses, and you and I--the taxpayers at the bottom rung of the ladder--will be "allowed" to scrape up the crumbs.

That's all conspiracy. From an objective take, I'd be willing to bet the SBA was scrambling to get this up and running, considering the limited time to get this pushed out. When it comes to writing guidelines, you can truly only push so fast before you lose out on quality. Throwing more money and people on it doesn't maintain quality or get things out any quicker either; I know, as I write guidelines and specifications for a living. Pressure by the feds to get this out ASAP was likely the result of low quality regulations.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/2020 05:35PM by Tarantado.

If those restaurants were franchises and the franchisees got the loans, that would be a different thing.

@shoptastic wrote:

I personally have just been telling people to expect this thing to take much longer to get through on both the medical and economic fronts. I don't personally plan on the economy recovering, nor a potential approved vaccine until 2021 as a best case scenario.

I'm glad that my personal and optimistic opinion differs greatly from your own (and I respect your opinion). I personally believe it likely that an order of magnitude of people have already caught and recovered from covid-19 without needing medical attention. I heard today as many as 50x to 80x the known infection rate. There is a likelihood that all of those folks have some level of antibody protection from covid-19 and hopefully the antibodies last long enough to provide protection from a so-called 2nd wave of this virus. All of these people help to begin building the "herd immunity" needed to really slow the spread.

Keywords of hope and believe as no one knows for sure (including Gov't and medical professionals). These are just my hopeful beliefs....

If this virus is like other corona viruses (like the common cold), then what? Immunity doesn't last long. Some people seem to catch a cold every year. This one just happens to kill some people.

@Tarantado wrote:

@Opanel wrote:

Of course you--and everyone else--should be irritated by the ABUSE of the SBA guidelines. I am not well-educated, and I am certainly not an economist, but I understand the concepts of fraud and corruption when I see them. You have to wonder if the guidelines were purposely written with so many loopholes that one could drive a Mack truck through them. It is a free-for-all money grab for businesses, and you and I--the taxpayers at the bottom rung of the ladder--will be "allowed" to scrape up the crumbs.

That's all conspiracy. From an objective take, I'd be willing to bet the SBA was scrambling to get this up and running, considering the limited time to get this pushed out. When it comes to writing guidelines, you can truly only push so fast before you lose out on quality. Throwing more money and people on it doesn't maintain quality or get things out any quicker either; I know, as I write guidelines and specifications for a living. Pressure by the feds to get this out ASAP was likely the result of low quality regulations.

Given the history of TARP relief in the 2008 financial crisis, where there WAS explicit fraud (from Geithner - Treasury head - on down to mortgage lenders and banks), it would not be surprising at all if there were, in fact, bailout program fraud. I'm not saying it's intentional or for certain, but just not surprising if it were.

More people (millions) were hurt by the U.S. government's TARP program than helped by it. That is a jarring statement from the man (a lifelong progressive Democrat and Obama supporter) who oversaw it as Inspector General, Neil Barofsky. People were tricked into home mortgage modification programs where lenders had final say and could foreclose at the very last second (or also commonly by pretending to not get documents from borrowers that were sent 10, 12, 16x already in some cases), despite homeowners making their dutiful modified mortgage payments. The way the relief program WAS WRITTEN encouraged fraud and foreclosures. Banks and lenders made more money by foreclosing than approving of modified mortgages, because they could keep the trial payment fees. So much fraud took place under TARP that it was a double whammy to distressed homeowners. First get hammered by the broader sub-prime mortgage meltdown economically. Second, have your remaining assets and life-savings squeezed out of you to the last drop (to use Neil Barofsky's words) under the pretense you could qualify for a mortgage modification program to keep your house - only to lose it anyways in the end (due to how incentives were aligned).

This is well documented and something Elizabeth Warren has blasted the Bush and Obama administration for. They were run by Wall Street goons, who not only helped fuel the sub-prime mortgage crisis, but then engaged in rampant fraud in the name of relief aid to those same battered homeowners afterwards for a huge profit for the banks and lenders!

With men of such high character as "The Foreclosure King," Steve Mnuchin (whose OneWest bank committted countless foreclosure fraud in the '08 crisis), leading our Treasury and Wilbur Ross (whose various mortgage companies were found to have broken the law with "systemic misconduct" during the '08 crisis well) as Commerce Sec. head, I'm less than trusting that these bailout and relief packages will end up being on the up and up.

Well have to see, though. . .

Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/17/2020 06:28PM by shoptastic.