@John-Joseph Capocci wrote:

The virus looks manipulated by government, not natural. By the Wuhan Clan against Hong Kong.

First, there is absolutely no evidence that the virus was manipulated or manufactured in any way. There was a separate discussion here about that where a number of outlets were cited.

Second, we have an understanding here to refrain from politics as much as possible in these threads. There are obvious political components to how the US has botched the handling the pandemic, but please refrain from calling out specific politicians or the entire conversation will spiral out of control and be shut down....

I think the death rate has been higher than you quoted. Regardless, there is more to this than how many people will get the virus or how many will die from the virus. We are already seeing the survival rate go down because of what should be controllable factors. The healthcare professionals have been warning about overwhelming the system and it is happening in some areas. It is naive to suggest this will just impact Covid-19 patients. Think about all the other ailments requiring people to go to a hospital or even an urgent care. What is going to happen if you are in a car accident and the hospitals are at 150% capacity. Injuries and illnesses which would normally be minor by today's standards will easily become life threatening.

I'll stick with the medical professionals and scientists along with the quarantines already proven successful in other countries over a random person's opinion on the Internet.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/27/2020 03:54AM by LisaSTL.

You aren't a big fan of someone who in less than their first hour on the forum posts 15 times?

@LisaSTL wrote:

I think the death rate has been higher than you quoted.

We won't be able to really establish an accurate death rate until far in the future, with retroactive testing to see who contains the antibodies, but as Lisa points out, the rate of the virus spread will definitely impact that once it overwhelms our healthcare system...and how does the collateral death she mentions even play into that?

Is the person who dies from something that could have otherwise been avoided because they couldn't get care in a hospital considered in the COVID death rate?

For NY, as of yesterday, death rate was 0.9%, but for CA, it was around 2.0%.

Why?....because NY is testing WAY more people that CA. You need to be over 65, have an underlying health condition or have confirmed contact with someone who was diagnosed, have symptoms and be under the first 7 days of a mandatory quarantine to even quality for testing in Los Angeles!

@Flash Yeah, that's the ticket. It has nothing to do with conspiracy theories or misinformation

I am dizzy and nauseated from stress. I just finished 12 days in a row. We are doing extreme social distancing, which means a lot of walking, doubling back, going around lab counters - taking the long way every time it feels like. Every touch surface is sprayed with bleach twice a shift. I wash my hands all the time anyway, but I have doubled the washing. We have at least 20 L of Purell left, which should last another 2-3 months. Apparently, we will be making batches for 300 employees soon. I think that we are waiting on one more ingredient... The whole staff is stressed that if one of us goes down, we all will be isolated. That would be catastrophic.

And if one more person says something stupid, I cannot be responsible for my reaction today.

So, that's how it has affected me so far. Yep, oh, I cannot find any cheap white rice, since I am at work before the sun comes up and I am not home until 5:30-6:00 PM. The stores are picked clean by then.

I'm cranky, and I am headed for some Maker's 46.

I have never had a clue what your "real" job is but obviously it is essential. Enjoy your Maker's (or three) and know how much we appreciate everyone on the front lines.

Has anyone been hearing people talk about the fact that they think that COVID19 was here in Dec and maybe Nov? And the people who are talking about this are also mentioning how VERY sick they were in Dec/Jan and how VERY long the sickness lasted.

In addition, our room mate was very sick in Jan and he went to the doc twice. The doc told him, "It seems like flu, but your flu tests are negative. " Doc couldn't figure out what else it might have been.

Idk...just wondering about some things now.... ??

@bgriffin wrote:

@Jill_L wrote:

I have rental properties. I think I'm going to lose my properties. IDK

I don't know why you would? Some mortgages can't be foreclosed on for 120 days and most banks have said they won't be foreclosing on anything during this crisis. We are much more concerned with our tenants. One just went through several surgeries and just went back to work 2 weeks ago, at a gas station. :/

I'm so sorry for your tenants! What an awful time to have to go through that!!

I contacted Wells Fargo, where I have 3 mortgages. I was told that I can make payments. Either "as much as I can" for 5 months with the entirety of 5 months' mortgage due at the end of that time (meaning I can't really give a break to my renters bc I don't have that much saved) Or I can pay 1/3 for 3 months and pay the rest at the end of the 3 months. Another bad situation for me. I'm thinking that these types of terms will be modified a little as time goes on...more creativity in the mix

The other issue I have is that with this type of modification, I was told that it would adversely affect my credit.

On the other hand, I have a friend who banks with a credit union. Her mortgage is roughly $1100 and she has six months of paying $363. And it will NOT affect her credit UNLESS she doesn't pay the $363

After this, I may refi all houses with credit unions LOL

So...more phone calls tomorrow.

One set of renters is moving out April 1. They had given notice a month ago. And finding new renters is kinda tough in this climate and with the type of house it is. So I'm going to see what the bank says and possibly sell the house. But are houses selling? My realtor says yes. So I'm not sure about the best route here....

Also, in a sort of ironic twist...I've been a hoarder for years. I've always tried to keep 4-6 months of "stuff" on hand

We moved a year ago and before the move, I stopped buying a lot of my hoarded items, to have less to move. Before the move, I didn't have to buy TP for six months. I didn't buy soap for the entire year before the move. I didn't buy canned goods for the year before the move....etc.

So, I have slowly been trying to restock....it's a time consuming and expensive process....

The ONE THING I didn't restock was TP. There is just no place to "store" six months of TP for 8 people in this new house...so I'm nearly out. I have four rolls left. Can't EVER find it in the stores....and really don't WANT to keep GOING to the stores.

My husband keeps laughing at me about this because a few years ago when we just had 2 kids, we had a house with 3 bathrooms...but one was sort of "ick" and never got used. So I stored our excess TP in the bathtub of that bathroom and hid it with a shower curtain. We had TP piled over the edge of the shower curtain and grazing the ceiling (there were other things in there....but that fits nicely ON TOP of everything else.) All those years of being "prepared...." oh, the irony

@Jill_L wrote:

Also, in a sort of ironic twist...I've been a hoarder for years. I've always tried to keep 4-6 months of "stuff" on hand

We moved a year ago and before the move, I stopped buying a lot of my hoarded items, to have less to move. Before the move, I didn't have to buy TP for six months. I didn't buy soap for the entire year before the move. I didn't buy canned goods for the year before the move....etc.

So, I have slowly been trying to restock....it's a time consuming and expensive process....

The ONE THING I didn't restock was TP. There is just no place to "store" six months of TP for 8 people in this new house...so I'm nearly out. I have four rolls left. Can't EVER find it in the stores....and really don't WANT to keep GOING to the stores.

My husband keeps laughing at me about this because a few years ago when we just had 2 kids, we had a house with 3 bathrooms...but one was sort of "ick" and never got used. So I stored our excess TP in the bathtub of that bathroom and hid it with a shower curtain. We had TP piled over the edge of the shower curtain and grazing the ceiling (there were other things in there....but that fits nicely ON TOP of everything else.) All those years of being "prepared...." oh, the irony

Serious question, have you considered alternatives to transition away from high toilet paper usage, such as a bidet?

@bgriffin wrote:

@Jill_L wrote:

I have rental properties. I think I'm going to lose my properties. IDK

I don't know why you would? Some mortgages can't be foreclosed on for 120 days and most banks have said they won't be foreclosing on anything during this crisis. We are much more concerned with our tenants. One just went through several surgeries and just went back to work 2 weeks ago, at a gas station. :/

Losing the properties is a reach, unless her margins are really that thin and there's been underlying issues to begin with. But Jill's should definitely be concerned on the long term effects, unless somehow some law passes to EXEMPT the banks from labeling any sort of loan deferrals as Trouble Debt Restructures (TDR's), which I know for a fact that many banks are doing just that despite the situation. Being labeled as high risk by your lender can definitely ruin someone's business (such as Jill's rental properties) and/or their personal bank worthiness (depending on if the mortgages are under her name or under a separate entity) for the long term.

@Jill_L wrote:

I'm so sorry for your tenants! What an awful time to have to go through that!!

I contacted Wells Fargo, where I have 3 mortgages. I was told that I can make payments. Either "as much as I can" for 5 months with the entirety of 5 months' mortgage due at the end of that time (meaning I can't really give a break to my renters bc I don't have that much saved) Or I can pay 1/3 for 3 months and pay the rest at the end of the 3 months. Another bad situation for me. I'm thinking that these types of terms will be modified a little as time goes on...more creativity in the mix

The other issue I have is that with this type of modification, I was told that it would adversely affect my credit.

On the other hand, I have a friend who banks with a credit union. Her mortgage is roughly $1100 and she has six months of paying $363. And it will NOT affect her credit UNLESS she doesn't pay the $363

After this, I may refi all houses with credit unions LOL

So...more phone calls tomorrow.

One set of renters is moving out April 1. They had given notice a month ago. And finding new renters is kinda tough in this climate and with the type of house it is. So I'm going to see what the bank says and possibly sell the house. But are houses selling? My realtor says yes. So I'm not sure about the best route here....

Since you're an investor, you may already know this, but just in case THEY (Wells Fargo) didn't make the terms clear, be careful to fully understand the details of it when accepting ANY loan deferments. From the sounds of it with them stating it would affect YOUR credit, I'm guessing the mortgages are under your name, instead of a separate entity such as an LLC? What they should also be telling you in more detail is that it'll only adverse your credit, but your loans may be marked at as a Troubled Debt Restructure (TDR), aka being labeled as 'high risk' by the lender. This definitely does have repercussions for the long term and as far as I know, there hasn't been any regulations updates to relieve those affected due to this crisis.

This is dependent on the lender, so what you're hearing from your friend may be true. At the same time, just because her credit isn't affected, DOES NOT MEAN that the credit union isn't labeling her mortgage as a TDR aka 'high risk.' So that's also something your friend should understand, but that's the job of her lender to make absolutely clear.

Good luck though! I understand what you're going through. Either way, there's nothing wrong with a deferral, but ANOTHER thing to strongly consider is to possibly cash-out, refinance which will tap into any capital gains any of your properties have appreciated over the years (assuming you've held your properties for a long enough time). That way, it'll completely avoid any TDR's AND could mitigate your risk if there are any financial issues with your tenants (or your other situation where your tenant is moving out).

You're in Colorado, right? If so, feel free to PM me, as I'm out in the Denver area. I have recently worked with a VERY reliable mortgage officer that can assist in planning and also seeing what kind of options are open to your specific situation, especially if a loan refinance makes sense to alleviate your concerns.

@John-Joseph Capocci wrote:

Mostly, being cleaner and some stress. I hate the shock tactics. It will pass according to Dr. Nanchang, discoverer of the original SARS virus, by May. I can see that. He said it may come back as a seasonal nuisance problematic for old people or disappear for ten years and then return in a milder form. He does not believe millions will die or half the world will be infected. Considering only 0.3 to 1 percent die under sixty, and 3.6 percent up to seventy, then fourteen percent after seventy, I think it is ridiculous to claim a high death rate or call it a killer. My roommate told me that he would rather have coronavirus than cancer with those rates. Good point. No treatment is required in eighty to ninety-four percent of cases, it goes away, and you get immunity. Your chance of dying is small in most cases. How this thing became a social-economic-health nightmare is beyond me. The virus looks manipulated by government, not natural. By the Wuhan Clan against Hong Kong.

Setting aside all political portions of this, you do bring up a good point. The shutdown is essentially crippling the economy the longer the shutdowns occur. It's stunting EVERYONE's life and what's sad is that the stimulus is definitely not enough to place a band aid on the majority of people's and the businesses' situation.

And if COVID-19 really turns out to be here to stay, time is of the essence to fight against it via a vaccine (easier said than done, right?). There absolutely HAS to be a better solution in the future than to quarantine and shutdown the country.

@Tarantado wrote:

@Jill_L wrote:

All those years of being "prepared...." oh, the irony

Serious question, have you considered alternatives to transition away from high toilet paper usage, such as a bidet?

I think Tarantado is secretly a bidet salesman!

@Jill_L wrote:

Has anyone been hearing people talk about the fact that they think that COVID19 was here in Dec and maybe Nov? And the people who are talking about this are also mentioning how VERY sick they were in Dec/Jan and how VERY long the sickness lasted.

In addition, our room mate was very sick in Jan and he went to the doc twice. The doc told him, "It seems like flu, but your flu tests are negative. " Doc couldn't figure out what else it might have been.

Idk...just wondering about some things now.... ??

Yes! I rent a room in my house to a guy who came back from Mexico mid-January and got sick as a dog with flu-like symptoms. He didn't go to a doctor but recovered. None of the rest of us who share common areas got sick though. He had been in several airports and busy places so odds are that it could well have been The Rona.

@sestrahelena wrote:

The Rona.

Lol there’s already nicknames for COVID19? In that case, I’ll now refer the virus as the RoRo.

Well, it was Coronavirus now it's Covid. They eliminated the harsh, threatening long "I" sound with the cute and innocent short "i" sound and made the name sound like "cupid" which is a happy concept. I feel so much safer now. Hardly seems dangerous at all! That was sarcasm (last 2 sentences) but I really think that the official nickname of covid is misleading in its simplicity.

Jill,

I just got back from Aldi's and I was surprised to see they were fully stocked with TP.

We have a local discount grocer here (Ohio chain) called Marc's. They had a huge pallet of Angel Soft. It was interesting that it was in plain plastic packaging, not the typical color print packaging with the name on it, and there was a sign on the pallet notifying customers what it was (and of course the 2 packages per customer limit info).

@Tarantado "It's stunting EVERYONE's life........" Shelter in place has been in place anywhere from 1 to 3 weeks. Nobody is being asked to go to the front lines of a foreign country and live in a tent. When you feel your life is "stunted," just think about the doctors and nurses fighting and already dying.

"There absolutely HAS to be a better solution in the future than to quarantine and shutdown the country." And yet if you look at the countries who have been successful in fighting the virus, quarantine has been a major factor in their success. This isn't a movie where the world's top scientists band together and discover a cure before the credits roll.

@sestrahelena wrote:

Well, it was Coronavirus now it's Covid.

There are many types of coronavirus. Coronavirus is a family of viruses kind of like the influenza family. Like N1H1 is a type of influenza virus, this particular virus is a novel (meaning new in humans) coronavirus which is officially named SARS-CoV-2, meaning it is the 2nd iteration of the SARS Coronavirus. The disease SARS-CoV-2 causes is Covid-19, or Coronavirus infectious disease of 2019.

Edited to add. There are many types of coronavirus, this particular one is very uncommon in that most coronavirii cause at worst mild common cold symptoms in humans.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/27/2020 03:56PM by bgriffin.

@LisaSTL wrote:

@Tarantado "It's stunting EVERYONE's life........" Shelter in place has been in place anywhere from 1 to 3 weeks. Nobody is being asked to go to the front lines of a foreign country and live in a tent. When you feel your life is "stunted," just think about the doctors and nurses fighting and already dying.

"There absolutely HAS to be a better solution in the future than to quarantine and shutdown the country." And yet if you look at the countries who have been successful in fighting the virus, quarantine has been a major factor in their success. This isn't a movie where the world's top scientists band together and discover a cure before the credits roll.

By stunted, many are financially being at risk, their businesses facing bankruptcy, losing their jobs, etc. Nobody’s asked for their lives to be in financially ruined either.

So if a virus like this comes around say annually, every couple of years, etc., quarantine and pumping stimulus bills may be the only effective solution?

Yes

@bgriffin wrote:

Yes

The stimulus bill puts a bandaid, rather than fixes anything. It proves the world simply shutters economically when the economy stalls. Is the takeaway is to just tell everyone to save a year’s amount in liquid funds for an emergency fund, and businesses to have a couple months, maybe a year’s worth of overhead for emergencies like this?

This country doesn't lack resources, it lacks compassion.

I find it interesting how the two sides to this issue are handled. Nationwide concern over loss of life is called mass hysteria while the gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about the loss of money is not. If our economy is truly so fragile a few weeks leaves us teetering on the brink, perhaps it is time to take a closer look at the root problems. Greed is good is a motto that should have been left in the 80's.

@Tarantado wrote:

By stunted, many are financially being at risk, their businesses facing bankruptcy, losing their jobs, etc. Nobody’s asked for their lives to be in financially ruined either.

So if a virus like this comes around say annually, every couple of years, etc., quarantine and pumping stimulus bills may be the only effective solution?

Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to plan as the old adage goes. There is this thing called "personal responsibility" that says one sets aside for a "rainy day". If I am using every cent of my income and then some credit that maybe some day I will be able to pay off, I need to trim my sails to live within my means. If I can't bear to give up anything I need to get a second or third job and if I am already doing that, I need a third party to come in and get serious with me about fiscal responsibility.

The bail outs have got to stop. They were perhaps understandable for the banks because the banking industry had shown such poor judgment in the beginning of the century regarding their lending practices. Failure of the banks would have been pretty catastrophic for personal and corporate lending and borrowing. In exchange for the bail out the banks got regulated to the hilt even though they were expected to repay the loans. The general public got extended term unemployment, shared cost health insurance under COBRA and help with refinancing underwater home mortgages.

This round the handouts to individuals are going to be massive, probably not terribly effective and will saddle the government with more debt. Debt service on that, even at low rates now, will further reduce funds available for government programs and increase public liability through taxes for basic services. Frankly businesses should need no handouts at all since they got a substantial tax cut and it would appear have not used it to add value to their business or protect themselves against the "what if".

The part of the equation you left out is stagnant wages and healthcare costs which have left more people living paycheck to paycheck not because they are fiscally irresponsible but because wages have not kept up with inflation. Most of that can be tied to the already massive and growing income inequality. Stimulus money to the average citizen will result in trickle up because they don't have the luxury of hoarding money.

@LisaSTL wrote:

This country doesn't lack resources, it lacks compassion.

I find it interesting how the two sides to this issue are handled. Nationwide concern over loss of life is called mass hysteria while the gnashing of teeth and wringing of hands about the loss of money is not. If our economy is truly so fragile a few weeks leaves us teetering on the brink, perhaps it is time to take a closer look at the root problems. Greed is good is a motto that should have been left in the 80's.

Making ends meet and trying to keep up with your life doesn't mean you lack compassion.

And yes, the economy IS truly fragile. While Flash below stated "personal responsibility" and making a large rainy day fund to cover, let's say 6 months of expenses. The reality is, most Americans don't even have $1,000 in their bank account and are living check to check!

The same goes for a LARGE majority of these businesses. The moment revenues drop and stay low for a month's time, either they furlough and send their employees to unemployment, cut their hours and tell them to seek unemployment for the remainder, or lay them off completely and send them to unemployment. It's truly rare to find businesses that have enough overhead to weather a storm like this, hence why lots of these corporations and not surprisingly, smaller businesses, are being smeared for not taking the blow and paying their employees on overhead like the select few (e.g. Patagonia)

@Flash wrote:

Nobody plans to fail, they just fail to plan as the old adage goes. There is this thing called "personal responsibility" that says one sets aside for a "rainy day". If I am using every cent of my income and then some credit that maybe some day I will be able to pay off, I need to trim my sails to live within my means. If I can't bear to give up anything I need to get a second or third job and if I am already doing that, I need a third party to come in and get serious with me about fiscal responsibility.

The bail outs have got to stop. They were perhaps understandable for the banks because the banking industry had shown such poor judgment in the beginning of the century regarding their lending practices. Failure of the banks would have been pretty catastrophic for personal and corporate lending and borrowing. In exchange for the bail out the banks got regulated to the hilt even though they were expected to repay the loans. The general public got extended term unemployment, shared cost health insurance under COBRA and help with refinancing underwater home mortgages.

This round the handouts to individuals are going to be massive, probably not terribly effective and will saddle the government with more debt. Debt service on that, even at low rates now, will further reduce funds available for government programs and increase public liability through taxes for basic services. Frankly businesses should need no handouts at all since they got a substantial tax cut and it would appear have not used it to add value to their business or protect themselves against the "what if".

I agree in all aspects of your post. However, the reality is that most American simply struggle to make ends meet, in all income levels. Even a portion of the middle class (Those that make more than $99k, or $199k married) was left out of that $1,200 stimulus payment, as they did NO adjustment for cities with high cost of living. Most Americans live check to check, whether it's their choice or not.

Continually inflating the economy with stimulus bills to places a band aid on the true flaws of the economy. As LisaSTL put it, there are other problems that needs to be looked into if the economy is so fragile..... It really is fragile. Most business and most people don't have the savings (or for business, overhead and equity) to weather a stall in the economy.

If even MORE regulations are put in place, it would virtually make starting a business impossible if the expectation is to have enough overhead to fully cover your employees for months in case of a sudden downturn in the economy.

Speaking of COBRA, I recall looking at this, when I was transitioning companies back in 2013.... The premium for a single person was absolutely outrageous at $500/month, granted this was before the affordable healthcare act (thank god that happened, as someone having pre-existing conditions). Hopefully employment benefits like that have evolved to something much more reasonable....



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 03/27/2020 04:51PM by Tarantado.

@Tarantado "Making ends meet and trying to keep up with your life doesn't mean you lack compassion." And my comment did not refer to the average person doing just that. It is the "I got mine, eff you," mentality that is too pervasive. The pitting of the middle class against the poorer classes while the wealthiest sit in their luxury boxes at the Colosseum giving a thumbs down.